Place your bets

Global warmists are hard pressed for some good evidence these days. The satellite temperature readings aren’t showing a warming trend. Ocean buoys indicate the ocean is slightly cooling. The antarctic ice has reached record extent. Only the "adjusted" temperatures provided by NASA provide some comfort.

The best hope for some good evidence lies in the summer ice melt in the arctic. There are a lot of bets being placed on the arctic ice melt.

Polar experts are starting to place their bets on the fate of the thin veneer of sea ice on the Arctic Ocean, and quite a few are forecasting even more open water this summer than last. Mark Serreze at the National Snow and Ice Data Center pointed me to their latest sea-ice projection, posted on Monday, and told me he sees “a decent chance that the North Pole melts out” this year. Ignatius G. Rigor, an ice expert at the University of Washington, agrees. In an e-mail, he said he’s putting his (research) money where his mouth is “by buying a few dozen buoys that are meant to be deployed in open ocean.” Source:http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/science-on-shrinking-north-pole-ice/

Here is a great vantage point for watching the arctic ice race. This graphic shows the extent of arctic ice over the last several years. The yellow line shows the record dip in ice coverage last summer. The orange line shows the current ice coverage. Will the orange line dip down to join the yellow line?

arctic ice    Click on graph to enlarge.

This graphic is updated regularly from this site. July will be a crucial time as people everywhere will be watching how fast the ice melts.

Incidentally, the extent of the summer melt does not affect the polar bear. Polar bears are on land from July to November in any event.

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2 Responses to Place your bets

  1. Josh says:

    Here\’s a better one: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.pngIt doesn\’t confuse you with a plethora of lines, and no missing orange one. Just 2007 and 2008, with the 1979-2000 average as a more general reference. Looks like the lines have already done a little convergin\’. Just getting acquainted. Hey, baby. Lemme get a little closer. Gettin\’ kinda warm in here. Mind if I take off my top?

  2. David says:

    Actually the graph cited as "better" is quite useless. The mean without knowing the standard deviation tell you nothing. Without the standard deviation you don\’t know if the values for 07 and 08 are significant or not. Andy Revkin tried to foist this graph on the public in NYT article but several comments took exception to this misuse of statistics, Here is one sample comment:

    25.
    June 27th,20082:38 pm

    your graph showing the average of ‘79 to 2000 would actually be more meaningful, if you also showed the 3 sigma deviation. If the curves of 07 and 08 fall within the 3 sigma d. then the graph is really misleading.
    Also stating that the melting is “not inconsistent” with one fact is misleading, since surely it is “not inconsistant” with other theories as well.However, on the possitive side the article is certainly politically correct. 😉
    — Posted by john macpherson
    Source:http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/27/whats-really-up-with-north-pole-sea-ice/
     

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