Get Stunned!

Climate change is happening at a faster pace and having a bigger impact than expected, says a University of Victoria climatologist who helped write a new scientific report.

Andrew Weaver is one of 26 authors of The Copenhagen Diagnosis, which updates climate change science since the 2007 assessment of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

"This is a bigger problem than people think," Weaver said yesterday.

One evidence of the big impact of climate change is the arctic sea ice.

As evidence of the fast pace of change, the report points to the "stunning" retreat of Arctic sea ice. The area of summer sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40 per cent greater than the average projection by the intergovernmental panel.

Here is a graph of the arctic sea ice from 2002 to 2009.

 AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent

Since ships have traversed the Northwest passage in the last three years the conditions shown in the graph must be similar to 1906 when Roald Amundsen started a three year trip through the passage and 1941-42 when the RCMP ST.Roch went from east to west and 1944 when the St. Roch made the return trip. If ships navigated the Northwest passage in the previous century why would anyone be “stunned” at the melt of the last three years? Even if there was a “stunning” retreat of ice how would you  know what to attribute it to?

Source: Vancouver Sun, November 25, 2009

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One Response to Get Stunned!

  1. D says:

    Talk about stunned. Whoever modeled the arctic summer sea-ice extent for the IPCC must have been Tasered…repeatedly. The last time the model was close to being correct was about 1981. From ’81 to ’06 measured sea-ice was below the worst-case scenario modeled by the IPCC 15 out of 25 times! Moreover, in all those years, the actual measured ice extent never once reached the mean of all the models. In other words, the models are woefully insufficient! See for yourself: http://nsidc.org/news/images/20070430Figure1.png

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